Abe to Spell Out Japan’s Wartime Legacy, But Will He Apologize?

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe looks on at the 70th anniversary of the Hiroshima atomic bomb

 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s commitment to reconciliation with Japan’s former enemies will be tested Friday in a statement on his nation’s wartime legacy, with success hinging on whether he can bring himself to apologize.
Japan’s neighbors will closely parse Abe’s words to see whether the grandson of a wartime cabinet minister will show sufficient contrition for his country’s militaristic past. Animosity over history runs particularly deep in China and South Korea, which suffered the brunt of Japanese imperialism.

On the 70th anniversary of his nation’s World War II surrender, Abe’s challenge is to keep his nationalist base on side, while showing enough remorse to enable a further thaw in ties with Japan’s two-biggest Asian trading partners -- relations that have been soured by territorial disputes and Abe’s drive to strengthen the military.

“He’ll have to keep his personal beliefs in the closet for the sake of Japan’s national interest,” said Robert Dujarric, director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at Temple University’s Japan Campus.

In a dramatic reminder of the lingering anger over Japan’s wartime actions, an elderly South Korean man set himself on fire this week at a demonstration in Seoul. He had participated in rallies demanding compensation for forced laborers and sex slaves used by the Imperial Army.

‘Forward-Looking’

Abe’s nationalist supporters want to replace the repentance of previous statements with a “forward-looking” message. The general public, however, wants him to show remorse -- 42 percent of respondents to an NHK poll this month said his message should include a direct apology, while 15 percent said he shouldn’t.

Abe has repeatedly said he upholds apologies made by previous premiers, though doesn’t see the need to reiterate them in his own statement. Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama offered the most robust apology for Japan’s “colonial rule and aggression” in a 1995 statement on the 50th anniversary of the war. A decade later, Junichiro Koizumi used similar terms in his 60th anniversary message.

A direct apology could help sustain a tepid improvement in ties with China that led to efforts to reduce territorial tensions and two brief meetings between Abe and President Xi Jinping.

Abe’s arrival to power in December 2012 came months after violent anti-Japanese demonstrations in China triggered by the Japanese government’s purchase of uninhabited islands claimed by both countries.

Toyota Motor Corp. posted its first annual sales decline in China that year before recovering once tensions cooled. Total trade between the countries slumped 6 percent in 2013 from a year earlier, and Japanese investment in China declined nearly 40 percent last year.

Key Terms

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told Abe’s envoy Shotaro Yachi in Beijing last month that he hoped Japan would keep its commitments on historical issues, and treat seriously the concerns of victimized countries in Asia. The content of Abe’s statement may determine whether an Abe-Xi summit will be held in September.

Wang Xinsheng, a professor of history who specializes in Japan and East Asian politics at Peking University, said China would be looking for four key terms in Abe’s statement: invasion, colonial rule, reflection and apology.

“The tensions between China and Japan are multifaceted and history is just one component,” Wang said. “Mentioning these phrases can only help scratch some surface itches.”

Harder Nut

South Korea may prove a harder nut to crack. President Park Geun Hye is refusing to hold a summit with Abe until Japan does more to address the issue of so-called comfort women, the thousands of women forced into Japanese military brothels. South Korea views Japan with suspicion because it hasn’t ridden itself of wartime legacies as fully as Germany, according to Cho Sei Young, a professor of international studies at Dongseo University in Busan.

While both countries are threatened by a nuclear-armed North Korea, the feuds have reduced economic and military cooperation between the U.S. allies, said Cho, a former South Korean foreign ministry official. Cho said a 14-year currency swap agreement may not have been allowed to expire this year had the nations been on better terms.

“South Korea fears a situation where a clever change in the statement’s language may make it difficult for it to protest fully,” he said. “In the event of such a trick, South Korea will have questions about Abe’s sincerity and that would sour the relations further.”

Still, both China and South Korea may have practical reasons for wanting to lower tensions over history as governments in both countries are focused on their own economic problems, according to Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, a political-risk research and consulting firm in New York.

“None of them can afford a serious confrontation that might weigh on growth at home,” Bremmer said. “The demands of business will trump demand for conflict, at least for now.”